Futures Markets Commentary 2012-04-14 Sugar Gold AUD/USD

Here is a brief futures markets commentary on my views for right now. First, I am still long June AUD/USD futures and June Gold futures. My goals in both markets are for days, maybe a couple of weeks. Naturally, I'm using safety stops in both markets and I am now looking at raising them since I have made some good points in both markets.

Second, I am looking at daily sugar futures. We have seen prices decline recently, and Friday was a rather large drop in price. The MACD, to me, is confirming that prices will continue to drop for a while. Well, maybe not, but I don't think they will rise. What this is telling is to start looking for a bottom. I don't expect this to happen for maybe a month or so. Maybe around mid May we will see some signals for entering a long trade in sugar. What I will be looking for might be something like what we see in the chart on the right hand side in the red circles. That is the type of MACD divergence I will be looking for on the daily charts, signalling me to find a corresponding divergence on the 60 minute to pin-point my entry. Again, this is something I will be looking for over the next few weeks, not something immediate.

Now, lets get back to the AUD/USD and gold. What we are seeing in gold is a return to the moving average. This has happened several times in the past month or two, and each time we saw a bounce downward. This time, I entered near the lower band and I am willing to risk my profit going to zero in the hopes of a continued upward movement. I will use the stop-loss to make sure my profit only goes to zero and does NOT become a loss. The reason I think that prices may continue to rise is because MACD is slowly rising and making new highs. Also, the COT (which does not appear on this chart) is telling me some interesting things. I am still just learning about COT, so this is somewhat of an experiment for me. Anyways, I am going to hold my profitable long position for now.

I am also going to hold my profitably AUD/USD long position from earlier this week for much the same reasons as gold, so I will not bother to draw a chart for it. This concludes the futures markets commentary for now.

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