I've been having difficulties with my web provider, so this US Dollar trade entry is pretty late. Basically, they changed the format of how to build and upload webpages yesterday and I'm still just getting the hang of it. I've shorted the US Dollar on a short term trade here. I was hoping for a larger drop in price, but I didn't see it. Although, the drop may still come early next week. I have already exited this position taking 0.125 out of it. Its not a lot, but its cash in my pocket on a trade that went mediocre.I observed a bearish MACD divergence on the 60 minute chart for the September dollar index, and I decided to trade it. Entry occurred at 82.60 at 9:18. I trailed my stop until I got frustrated and tightened it up shorter than what my formula calls for, and that's exactly when I got stopped out. This happens to me with some frequency. The result of having tightened my stop was that I missed an extra 0.050 in profit, oh well. 0.125 isn't too bad for 3 hours on a trade that just "appeared". Here is the chart, entry at 82.60 at 9:18. Exit occurred at 82.475 at 11:53. The chart is a 60 minute price chart for the September US Dollar contract.
As you can see, the MACD is highlighted with red lines. It seems like a pretty clear one to me, this is why I like trading the USDX and sugar on 60 minute charts. Other contracts I find that display these types of clear MACD divergences on 60 minute time frames are the CAD/USD and the AUD/USD.
In other markets, sugar behaved rather oddly today. It dumped about 1.00 off the price today. I expect that there will be another MACD divergence indicating a long entry coming up soon, but I am concerned that this may negate the longer term rise I was hoping for. My COT data still has me thinking with a bullish bias in this market, as with gold. But for sugar, I think I will just play it cool and watch for shorter trades on the 60 minute charts. Gold on the other hand, I am still quite bullish there. I reentered into my long position after exiting profitably during the last price drop. We saw that market close a few points in the green. My COT data still has me thinking quite bullishly about the precious metal. I'm also starting to watch the bond complex, specifically 10 year treasuries. I am watching for a shorting opportunity on weekly and daily charts. However, I don't expect that will occur terribly soon.
posts listed chronologically below
2012-10-15 Natural Gas Futures
2012-09-25 Natural Gas, Sugar update
2012-09-09 Natural Gas, DX, GC, SB
2012-07-18 TRADE: US Dollar Index
2012-07-02 TRADE: Australian Dollar Futures
2012-06-27 TRADE: Sugar Futures
2012-06-12 TRADE: Dollar Index