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Australian Dollar 2012-07-30

I have entered a short position in Australian Dollar futures. My primary basis is the daily price chart, in addition to some interesting developments in the weekly price chart and COT data. My specific entry point was decided on a 60 minute price chart.

Short entry occurred at 14:25 on July 30th at a price of 1.0450. As always, I am using a stop to mitigate potential losses. The last time I shorted the AUD/USD a few weeks ago, my entry was premature. I am basically making the same trade here, only the situation seems a lot more "ripe".

Observe the daily futures trading chart for the September contract of the Australian Dollar.

australian dollar future

You can see several ascending tops in this chart, and you can clearly see the corresponding descending tops in the MACD histogram. The last of which was also accompanied by descending MACDE moving averages. This is an MACD - price divergence. At this point, I am expecting a return to the moving average at a minimum. Hopefully a larger scale price decline will occur below the 1.00 mark. However, I am going to set my stop cautiously in case my analysis turns out to be incorrect.

Observe the 60 minute chart for the September contract of Australian Dollar futures.

currency futures tradin

Observe the steadily climbing price, and the steady decline in MACD. Something will give here, because the situation will not last. Either price will continue to climb and MACD reset bullishly, in which case I will be forced to exit. Or, price will decline and MACD will follow as I am hoping.

My entry occurs at a point where the price made new highs, but the MACD histogram failed to mark above the "zero" line.

In other markets, I'm a little unsure of how to proceed in the USDX and sugar. I will sit back and see how those markets develop. Gold might become interesting if it nears the 1700 range. If it does, I'll be looking for a pullback to make a long entry.


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