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I am looking for a natural gas futures trade coming up. Before I talk about that, I'll sum up my feelings on the USDX, gold, and sugar.
Regarding the USDX, I am still looking for a long entry. The last market day saw a large drop in prices, and no entry signal has been given yet. in this market, I NEED to see an MACD divergence on the 60 minute chart. An MACD divergence on the daily futures chart would be good as well. I will not enter into a trade without seeing a good MACD divergence on the 60 minute trading chart.
Regarding sugar, my sentiments mirror that of the USDX. However, I feel like the daily chart is showing that we are getting closer and closer to seeing that signal. I would really like to see something that looks like an MACD divergence on the daily chart for sugar before making a long entry. As with the USDX, I really NEED to see an MACD divergence on the 60 minute charts as well. I do feel like we are getting close. I have begun looking at the December contract for the USDX, and the March 2013 contract for sugar.
Regarding Gold, I am still bullish, but I am very hesitant to enter. I am waiting for a correction close to the weekly moving average that I have set. This will put my buy zone in the low 1600's. However, with price behaviour over the last 10 days, I am getting concerned that I may be in for a longer wait and higher entry prices than I originally anticipated.
With all this waiting going on, I have begun looking at other markets for short-term trade opportunities. This is where natural gas comes into play.
I am anticipating a bottoming MACD divergence signal on the 60 minute charts for the October contract. I figure this will probably occur around 2.60-ish. NG has been zig zagging for what seems like forever, and I'm counting on this to continue. With recent zags being about 0.20 to 0.30 points wide, if the divergence does occur around 2.60 then my exit target will be in the 2.80's.
Again, I have not entered any trades, I will be looking for the divergence in nat gas. This is purely a short term trade. I really try not to stray from my favorite markets, and I hope I don't get burned. Along with 10-year T-notes, nat gas and crude are some of the markets that I would like to become more familiar with over the long term.
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