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Canadian Dollar 2012-09-04

I have shorted the Canadian Dollar. Entry occurred at 12:50 (my time, as always), at 1.0140. I was primarily watching gold, the USDX, and sugar, but I saw this chart setting up and I just decided to act. Lately, I've been trying to focus on only the USDX and sugar, and then recently gold again, but I decided to try and trade this setup anyways. So here is the breakdown for my currency futures trade in the CAD/USD.

First, let us observer the weekly futures chart for September CAD futures.

canadian dollar futures

Notice how we are in a range that has encountered upside resistance in the recent past. This, in addition to some other fundamental indicators I use that do not show up in this chart, are telling me that prices for this currency futures product could swing downwards soon. That makes me peel my eyes on the daily and 60 minute charts for possible entry points on the short side.

Next, let us observe the daily futures trading chart for the same currency futures product, CAD.

currency futures trading

Here we can see more closely how prices have encountered upside resistance in the 1.0150 to 1.0160 range over the paste few weeks. Also, notice that as prices have been poking upwards, MACD has diverged downwards. To me, this is an MACD divergence, and I am willing to trade it as such. I am open to the possibility that my analysis is wrong, and that is why I use stops, as you should. After observing the weekly chart, this situation in the daily timeframe is telling me the time is pretty close to "now".

Let us now observe the 60 minute futures chart for September CAD/USD futures.


Here we see another picture where MACD is diverging with price. On this time frame, this is a call to action. I have entered my trade after prices fell a little from the top. My entry was at 1.0140. Again, if my analysis has proven faulty or if market conditions change, as the frequently do, I have a stop in place in case of a runaway upward movement.

This is how I use the three time frames to decide on trades.

In markets other than the Canadian Dollar, I'm still bullish on Gold, USDX, and sugar. However, I'm still waiting for a setup that I like in the USDX and sugar. In gold, I'm hoping prices will correct to my weekly moving average, and I am hoping for an entry in the 1620 to 1600 range maybe in two to four weeks.

As you have noticed, I am currently using two different online trading platforms for my analysis and trade execution. I am trading from firetip, and using it for my 60 minute and daily analysis. For my weekly and some daily analysis, I am using ninja trader. If you have any comments about this, please use the contact us link below to send a comment.


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posts listed chronologically below



2013-04-08 Short Natural Gas

2013-03-10 Dollar Index

2013-02-17 Crude Oil

2013-02-11 British Pound

2013-02-03 Gold & Updates

2013-01-21 Gold Trade

2013-01-14 Natural Gas

2013-01-14 Gold Update

2013-01-07 Sugar Trade

2013-01-04 Gold Update

2013-01-03 Natural Gas

2012-12-28 Gold Prices

2012-12-26 Natural Gas

2012-12-24 Updates

2012-12-12 Sugar Trade

2012-12-06 Dog Video

2012-12-06 Gold Re-entry

2012-12-05 Natural Gas Update

2012-12-04 Natural Gas

2012-11-29 Gold

2012-11-19 Updates

2012-11-06 Natural Gas

2012-11-01 Natural Gas

2012-10-28 Gold Futures

2012-10-23 Natural Gas

2012-10-22 Sugar, Re-entry

2012-10-18 Sugar

2012-10-17 USDX, Sugar, Gas

2012-10-15 Natural Gas Futures

2012-10-12 Natural Gas Update

2012-10-10 Natural Gas

2012-10-04 Sugar Exit

2012-10-01 Sugar Update

2012-09-25 Natural Gas, Sugar update

2012-09-20 Sugar

2012-09-20 Natural Gas

2012-09-12 Canadian Dollar

2012-09-11 USDX

2012-09-10 Natural Gas

2012-09-09 Natural Gas, DX, GC, SB

2012-09-05 Sugar Futures

2012-09-04 Canadian Dollar

2012-09-01 Gold, Dollar Index

2012-08-24 USDX, Sugar, Gold

2012-08-19 TRADE Sugar

2012-08-16 TRADE Sugar

2012-08-12 10yr T-Notes

2012-07-30 TRADE: AUD/USD

2012-07-23 TRADE: USDX

2012-07-18 TRADE: US Dollar Index

2012-07-17 TRADE: AUD/USD

2012-07-15 10 Year Treasuries

2012-07-06 Sugar Futures

2012-07-02 TRADE: Australian Dollar Futures

2012-06-27 TRADE: Sugar Futures

2012-06-25 TRADE: US Dollar

2012-06-22 TRADE: US Dollar

2012-06-21 TRADE: Gold, Sugar

2012-06-18 More on Gold

2012-06-12 Gold Update

2012-06-12 TRADE: Dollar Index

2012-06-11 TRADE: US Dollar

2012-06-07 TRADE: Gold

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